Abstract:
The objective of this study was to assess the impact of climate variability on smallholder dairy
farming in Bassona Woran woreda, found in North Shewa zone, Amhara Regional State.
Purposive sampling technique was used to select the district and the three Kebeles (the lowest
administrative tire in the country) and simple random sampling technique was used to select
the sample respondents. Accordingly, a total of 106 households were selected proportionally.
Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to augment the quantitative
surveys. Rainfall and temperature data for the period 1986 to 2016 were obtained from the
National Metrological Agency of Ethiopia. Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI),
Standardized Rainfall Anomaly (SRA), Linear Regression (LR), Coefficient of Variation (CV)
were used to analyze rainfall, temperature and Correlation and regression analysis were used
to analyze the relationship and effect of climate variables and fodder availability on dairy
production. SPSS version 25 and MS excel were used to analyze data collected through the
close ended questionnaire. Descriptive statistics such as mean, frequency and percentile,
maximum and minimum values were used to analyze demographic characteristics of the
respondents, climate data (temperature and rainfall), milk and fodder production. Results
indicated that annual and seasonal rainfall show-decreasing trends over the period of observation,
while mean maximum and minimum temperatures show increasing trends. Milk production which
mainly depends on rainfed animal feed shows a positive correlation with fodder availability.
Climate change and variability resulted in the decrease in milk yield, shortage of animal feed,
emergence and rise of livestock disease in the study area. Some of the common livestock
diseases included blackleg, pneumonia, Pasteurella, mastitis, and sheep pox but the occurrence
of mastitis, blackleg and pneumonia incidences had increased and had major economic impact
for the respondents. The result revealed that most of the respondents perceived long-term
changes in rainfall and temperature. To halt the prevailing problems of climate change and
variability, government should promote food-feed crop production per unit area, conservation
of surplus forages, reliable weather forecasts mechanism, awareness creation on climate
impacts and coping strategies. The suggestions at household level included use of industrial by
product in order to sustain their dairy herd productivity, breed improvement to boost milk
production and strengthen veterinary services.
